A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
